Well there’s a short answer covering the problem. And a much longer answer describing why it’s such a problem, and what we have to do to fix and avoid it again in the future. The short answer: panic buying of seeds from fear of food scarcity, and national food chain supply shortages due to our current epidemic. If you know me, you know I mean it when I say that I genuinely hope this leads to a new golden age of farming and backyard gardening where equity of food access dominates our new national agrarian-strengthened prosperity boom.
To that point, if you reach out to me in this time for support with your new home garden, know that providing you with useful guidance and any tips would bring me ultimate joy and satisfaction. For those of you that do not yet know, consider me a resource - I am at your disposal. Under non-pandemic circumstances, our farm is completely open to visitors - and we are all absolutely happy to show how the sausage is made.
The following is likely to be much more than the average person wants to know about seeds and what we’ve been dealing with. We know transparency is critical to trust, and so here goes. You’ve been warned!
Where should we start with how that seed problem gets resolved? Seeds are a complex world, and it can be intimidating to the uninitiated. I’ve been dealing closely with seed farms and seed distributors for the past 5 years, so I can at least speak to our experience and make some very reasonable educated guesses. Here are the basic problems that have arisen surrounding seed scarcity, in no particular order:
Why can’t we just get more seeds?
Why can’t we just get seeds from some other place?
Why can’t we just get some packets from BigBoxStore?
What’s causing the delays?
What will we do to avoid this in the future?
What’s going to happen with the Farm?
1. Why can’t we just get more seeds?
Seed purchasing is a multi-faceted part of the business. And the cost of mistakes early multiply out dramatically (though not particularly severely) over time. We happen to understand logarithmic growth in our current climate more now than we used to. This behavior kind of describes what can happen when missed opportunities happen with seeding. Particularly with longstanding (multi-harvest or “cut-and-come-again” veggies like kales and collards).
There are many dimensions to seed quality, and the following is a selection. Are the seeds organic? Are the seeds biodynamic? Where are they from? Do they have a story? Are they GMO? Who grew them, and are they treated well and paid fairly for their labor? What is the company selling these seeds like, what do they stand for? Do these seeds tell a story? How fresh are they? How are they handled when packaged and shipped? Are they sensitive seeds (or plant starts like potatoes and sweet potatoes which ship as live plants) that will no longer arrive in a viable condition? Will they arrive in time to make it worth planting now (crops that thrive in cold weather now that spring is in full swing and temps are warming - like lettuce)? Can I acquire them in a fiscally responsible manner for the health of our business, in sufficient quantities to get the best to our customers? There’s at least a 10 page paper behind each of these questions. Dissertations are written about these many facets.
Clearly some of these questions may seem like they have… less than critical impacts on the finished crops. I can understand why many would come to that conclusion. But they are all critical to me, and they are part of what I think is important about how we do things differently. As our customer it’s one of the seemingly intangible but important things you’re paying for. If I have difficulty finding satisfactory answers to these questions, the number of seed options I consider “viable” dramatically decreases - especially after so many choices are wiped out from panic buying.
Furthermore, the seed market is incredibly stable over time. It is not designed to handle surges in demand like this, and it comes down largely to the biology of the plants, their growth habits, and the nature of farming. Carrots, for example (and many other vegetables), are biennial. This means they grow for a calendar year, and seed production occurs in their second year - after which they fade. While seeds may form on carrot umbels in their first season, their low germination rate makes them a poor choice for commercial use. In other words, it takes two years to make carrot seeds. Many, many other crops need to go through a seasonal cycle (or their seeds do, at least - “stratifying”) of high temps and frosts to properly produce viable germinating seeds. Seeds are just not something that can be rushed. The freshest seeds from this year were grown at least last year, if not the year before - 2020 carrot seeds come from 2018 carrot plants. And when you complicate this with the fact that some seeds stay viable for years, but some for less than one (pumpkin seeds vs onion seeds, for example)... things become that much more complicated.
2. Why can’t we just get seeds from some other place?
There is a limited number of seed distributors that meet our high requirements for seed acquisition. Many of our criteria are mentioned above. The last of those criteria on the list is fiscal. It’s obviously last intentionally, but it’s still there and I know that you understand it should be. Finding seeds from some other place in the quantities we need, while still fitting the criteria we set out for ourselves, is a challenge outside a pandemic. There may be other responsible places for us to purchase from, but an advantage of these trusted sellers is consistency.
When initially charged with finding a solution to this impending problem, my first thought was to look for home gardeners that are seed savers. They often come with incredible stories, and it’s a person taking care to provide something they truly love and enjoy. We’ve purchased nearly 3,000 seeds from small producers this year and many of them are working beautifully for us - I cannot wait to tell you about our Thai Basil! Others, not so much. A main complicating factor here is: when do we know the seed is no longer viable? Let’s talk about spinach, it’s a favorite crop to grow, and it’s a customer favorite, too. I acquired two ounces of spinach seeds from a backyard seed saver (about 4,000 seeds), for a favorite bulletproof heirloom variety: “Bloomsdale Longstanding.” I followed our normal routine. I sowed 400 starts. Spinach can take up to 14 days to germinate. Usually it’s faster for me because I pre-soak overnight - shortening our average spinach germination time to about 3-4 days. Day 16 I saw my first of a total of 20-ish sprouts. 18 Days to find out the seeds were not viable. As you would expect, we have little use for spinach seeds with a 5% germination rate.
And worse yet, because of current shipping conditions, it took 8 days to arrive, instead of the usual 2 or 3. Add 18 days to find out the seed lot was a dud, some quick math will show we have nearly 4 weeks lost with no spinach to show for it. The same went for beans, peas, lettuces, and a number of herbs.
3. Why can’t we just get some seeds from BigBoxStore?
Mostly because we know almost nothing about those seeds - if there’s any in stock. We have the company that made them, and the season they’re intended for. The selection is limited. We know the price, and it may seem low - $3 for 10 tomato seeds. This year, let’s say we needed 400 tomato plants. That means we needed to start ~480 seeds (at an industry standard minimum 80% germination rate). That’s $3 x 48. And that’s for seeds we know little about. Are there even enough packs in stock? Hopefully they’d have that 80% germination rate, but I’ve never seen it from a BigBoxStore seed packet. Reputable seed suppliers not only offer a better price point in bulk purchasing, they provide security through consistent product quality. I would say low quality seeds and their resulting low germination rates are one of the top discouraging factors for home gardeners, and it’s not a viable option for supplementing a farm at scale.
4. What’s causing the delays?
Well, to be honest, the delays are in part due to the shipping delays we’re all experiencing for pretty much everything right now. The rest of the delays are due to the fact that the companies we choose for our seed suppliers are being responsible and thoughtful in their handling of this pandemic. They are thinking about the safety of their employees and their communities, as they should. That’s slowing things down. I’ve grabbed a couple screenshots for you of various companies we typically rely on. IF we have at some point been able to order seeds - even in a normally timely fashion - we’ve waited weeks, and in some cases MONTHS to receive our orders. Our seed potatoes were a month and a half late, as an example. Some are in the image at the top of the post.
Another complicating factor is that some seed companies are making exceptions and either fast-tracking commercial farm orders, or limiting/not accepting new orders for smaller-scale or private/home gardeners altogether. What constitutes a “commercial” account for each supplier is at their discretion - sometimes we happen to fit their requirements, and sometimes we don’t - they are beholden to no one when they make that determination.
5. What will we do to avoid this in the future?
Should annual global pandemics be something we plan for? Who can say. What would we have to adjust in our business model to provide a plan against this in the future? Seeds need a cool, dark, airtight space for viable long term storage. We have just acquired new long-term storage containers for our seeds. Purchasing and storage of those seeds has already begun, as seed supply and logistics are beginning to catch up (in the limited ways they are able). We have also made increased investments in our propagation infrastructure, so that we can accommodate less-than-ideal germination rates in worst-case scenarios in the future; we now have increased capacity and can overseed at higher rates, with suitable outlets for donation of any “extras” afforded us through reasonable germination rates.
Seed saving is a massive undertaking, and a truly complex beast unto itself. It would require a dramatic re-imagining of our business plan and farm design for us to become completely self sufficient in our seed requirements. But any step we can take would potentially benefit us immeasurably. We formed and began working on a new seed saving project (with requisite infrastructure) at the beginning of April of this year. We’re keeping a close eye on sustainability and incorporation into our larger business model. So far it’s likely too soon to tell, but long term viability may be difficult. Although that could just be another opportunity for us to innovate; we look forward to such challenge,
6. What’s going to happen to the farm?
We’re going to be just fine. We’re behind schedule and moving along as best we can. As you would expect, social distancing, gloves, and masks are slowing us down a bit. We’ve now got seeds for 95% of the things we wanted to grow this year, and we’re continuing to move forward. This season still promises to be our best season yet - with increased quality, selection, quantity, and value for our customers. It is unlikely that after the first few weeks of this season, there will be any difference on our farm beyond our many positive improvements over previous seasons.
I think about what it was like when I first started farming. I had this romanticized notion of what I thought farming was or “should” be, and in many ways I was surprised by what reality called for if we were to be successful. There’s no substitute for actually getting out into the dirt and putting seeds in the ground; if you’re open to it, you may discover a lot about what you truly feel is important. And not just about growing things. In this particular instance, the option is always there to buy some seed from somewhere. Some unknown place, with a long list of unknown variables behind it and for cheap, too. A simple question like “is it worth it?” changes in significance dramatically when your principles and your word are on the line. I focus on making the kinds of decisions I would hope someone would make for my family and I, and that’s what I do for our customers.